El Niño, La Niña or La Nada
Harvest is over and our weather wishing has changed accordingly. During harvest, the last thing we want is rain. Rain during harvest makes a mess, dilutes the flavors and causes the growth of various molds, including botrytis. We were blessed with a beautiful dry harvest this year. Now we want rain.
Long range weather forecasting has improved dramatically since I started farming full time about 25 years ago. Much of the focus of the long range winter forecast is directed toward determining whether we have the formation of El Niño or La Niña conditions. There is a great explanation of these phenomena on Wikipedia. In a nutshell, El Niño refers to warming of the equatorial ocean water off of South America which accompanies high air surface pressure in the western Pacific and which typically results in more rainfall on the Central Coast of California. La Niña refers to cooler ocean water and dryer conditions in this area.
So what do we have in store for the winter of 2013/2014? According to an article on GRIST, the current condition is stuck somewhere between the extremes of El Niño and La Niña, which writer John Upton refers to as “La Nada”. The upshot is that it will be harder for forecasters to predict what kind of weather to expect this winter. What we do know now is that it’s dry. The little bit of rain that was predicted for this week was dialed back. This makes it easier for us to work in the field, to clean up our fields after harvest, to plant cover crops and vegetables, but dry isn’t good for us in the long term. Please join me in praying for rain—ideally about 25 inches, about 1 inch at a time, every 2 weeks between now and April 15. Cheers!
|The Rincon Adobe photo taken with green hills after rain in prior years.|
|The Rincon Adobe with brown hills because of the lack of rain.|